Pemex is facing a critical period ahead as it seeks to reduce emissions at a time when production is climbing.

Mexico’s state-owned oil company has set ambitious new emissions-intensity goals, reflecting a renewed commitment to improve its ESG record.

The targets will see GHG intensity from oil and gas production fall sharply from 38.1 tCO2e/Mboe in 2022, down to 21.5 tCO2e/Mboe in 2025, Evaluate Energy data shows.

Pemex hopes to achieve similar intensity declines by 2025 from its refining and natural gas processing businesses.

The updated targets are an acknowledgment from the company that its ESG track record needs a refresh, partly to continue to attract affordable financing.

Pemex remains heavily indebted — in just a decade, its debt has ballooned from $64 billion in 2013 to around $108 billion — and is dependent on access to the financial markets.

Greater ambition

In a May 2023 ESG update, the company outlined a range of specific measures it plans to take to improve its environmental record.

These include the release of a long-term Sustainability Plan for 2023-2050, expected in the second half of 2023, which will offer greater visibility and transparency into forward plans.

Other measures include a 98 per cent gas use target by 2024, up from 95 per cent currently.

Pemex has long faced criticism for its flaring, even though Mexico is among signatories to a World Bank pledge to cut routine flaring to zero by 2030.

In 2021, approximately 35 per cent of Pemex’s total Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions came from upstream gas flaring.

On a broader strategic level, Pemex also appointed its Sustainability Committee in March to help steer the group through its ESG transformation.

Production rising

At the same time, the company is seeing rising upstream production, which could make achieving its targets more challenging.

In March, liquids output reached 1.915 million bbls/d, with forecasts of 2.0 million bbls/d by the end of 2023.

Pemex is seeking to recover lost ground after output tumbled from 2012, when it stood above 2.5 million bbls/d.

The company is also scaling up refining and processing capacity in response to energy demand.

Crude oil processing capacity has similarly bounced back significantly after it plummeted by around 50 per cent between 2013 and 2018.

Major investments include the acquisition of Shell Deer Park Refining LP’s 340,000-bbl/d refinery in Texas in late 2021.

Trion sanctioned

How Pemex links its updated ESG strategy into the wave of new projects being unleashed to restore and rebuild output and capacity will be key.

Woodside Energy Group’s $7.2-billion Trion development, in which Pemex holds a 40 per cent interest, could be a marker of things to come.

The recent sanctioning of the ultra-deepwater field, located in the western Gulf of Mexico, may yield some clues as to how the state-owned company will translate its goals into reality.

While first output is not due until 2028, Trion is expected to have an average carbon intensity of 11.8 kgCO2e/boe over the life of the field, according to the operator, lower than the global deepwater oil average.

The project continues a trend of replacing ageing production from mature fields with new ones.

High stakes

Squeezed between high debt and the added costs of meeting ESG commitments, alongside the responsibility to meet the nation’s energy needs, cutting emissions intensity so drastically over the next two years will be a huge task.

Still, with more visible emissions targets in place, it seems as though a genuine effort is being made to get to grips with some of the many challenges faced by the company.

 

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Total upstream oil and gas M&A spending during the second quarter was 13.5% higher than the five-year quarterly average, with 79% of deal activity focused on assets in the United States and Canada.

$36 billion in new deals were announced worldwide – the highest quarterly spend since 2021, according to the latest Evaluate Energy analysis. For more on our M&A database, click here.

Key observations:

• Eight of the top 10 deals by value were oil-focused acquisitions
• Payback multiples are low: median EBITDA multiples were 2.7x compared to 7x over the past decade.
  • This suggests the market has little faith in the current high earnings environment continuing in the medium- to long-term.
• High value corporate acquisitions by publicly listed companies are becoming increasingly cash-based
• 79% of total deal activity by value was focused on U.S. and Canadian assets
  • Chevron acquisition of PDC Energy was the largest deal (see below)
  • TotalEnergies exited the Canadian oilsands as ConocoPhillips’ exercised its pre-emptive right to take the remaining 50% stake in Surmont for US$3 billion
  • TotalEnergies had originally agreed the full sale of its TotalEnergies EP Canada subsidiary to Suncor, which will now proceed for US$1.1 billion without Surmont
• 1.5 million boe/d changed hands this quarter, the highest volume since 2020

This activity was against a backdrop of falling oil and gas prices:

• WTI fell for a fourth consecutive quarter and averaged $73.82/bbl
• Henry Hub averaged $2.05/mcf, a 20% decline on Q1 2023

Share premiums stay low in the U.S.

Chevron’s acquisition of PDC in the DJ Basin continued the post-pandemic trend (post-Q1 2020) of lower share premiums being paid as part of large corporate mergers.

The $7.6 billion deal represents a share premium of just 11% – higher than premiums seen in 2020, but still lower than historical premiums for equivalent deals.

Share premium analysis: U.S. corporate mergers 2017 – 2023 

Top 5 mergers pre- and post-Q1 2020

Chevron’s history in the DJ Basin

The DJ Basin is now one of Chevron’s main areas of domestic U.S. operations.

It had originally targeted the basin with a bid to acquire Anadarko Petroleum in 2019, but lost out to Occidental in a bidding war that saw Anadarko acquired at a share premium of 64%* based on prices at the time of Chevron’s initial bid.

Since then and since the pandemic, Chevron has followed up an 8% premium acquisition of Noble Energy with this 11% PDC deal to now hold more acres in the DJ Basin than it would have done via any deal to acquire Anadarko.

Top 10 upstream deals worldwide – Q2 2023

Evaluate Energy’s M&A database holds every upstream deal worldwide since 2008, allowing daily comparisons of key metrics, corporate valuations and changes in spending behavior over time. For more on our data, which also includes data on downstream, midstream, service sector and renewable energy M&A activity, click the button below. 

 

*Premium measured using Anadarko share price on the day before Chevron’s original offer and the eventual deal value of Occidental’s completed takeover bid.

 

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Australia major Woodside Energy Group’s net equity Scope 1 emissions rose sharply in 2022 to 5.3 million tonnes CO2e from 3.5 million tonnes CO2e the prior year due to a merger with BHP Group’s petroleum arm completed in June 2022, Evaluate Energy data shows.

The merger incorporated BHP’s Australian, Gulf of Mexico and Trinidad and Tobago production units, as well as the supporting ancillary activities, into Woodside’s portfolio.

Carbon intensity fell from 0.34 to 0.29 kgCO2e/boe over the same period, reaching the lowest figure ever achieved, and suggesting the assets acquired were less carbon intense than those that Woodside was already operating.

BHP did not separate out emissions or emissions intensity data from its petroleum and mining operations pre-divestment, and Woodside did not respond to requests for data on the carbon intensity of the merged BHP assets.

But Woodside does provide data showing that the starting base emissions of the historical and merged assets were together just over six million tonnes of CO2e in 2021, and therefore there was a reduction in the overall net equity Scope 1 emissions of the existing and merged assets between 2021 and 2022 of just over 0.7 million tonnes of CO2e.

Woodside has maintained its Scope 1 and 2 emissions reduction targets of 15 per cent by 2025 and 30 per cent by 2030, but has re-established its starting base as 6.32 million tonnes of CO2e — the 2016-2020 gross annual average for the merged entity.

But the firm’s strategy relies heavily on offsets, meaning that the degree to which it plans to meet these targets through abatement is opaque. CEO Meg O’Neill told a conference last year that the firm had nearly all the offsets it needs already to achieve its 2030 target.

Woodside does have Scope 1 reduction initiatives focused on its LNG operations and says it assumes an internal long-term cost of US$80/tCO2e in the design and operation of its assets. At Pluto LNG’s Train 2 the firm has adopted aero-derivative gas turbines to achieve more efficient liquefaction, and has a goal to abate 30 per cent of the plant’s emissions by 2030. But again, progress towards this target can be supported with offsets. The firm’s Australian floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) facilities have focused their activities on reducing flare and fuel usage and delivering reliability improvements.

Woodside says it has selected around 30 decarbonization opportunities in its planning lifecycle, including: energy efficiency projects, equipment modifications, lower carbon power and process optimization.

In 2022, 67 per cent of Woodside’s equity Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions were from fuel combustion to power its assets, 20 per cent came from venting (of which the majority is associated with removal of reservoir CO2 as part of the LNG process), and 13 per cent from flaring.

Water use

Woodside dramatically cut its water use in 2022 (see chart), and not just through reduced production. Its water intensity figure (water use vs hydrocarbon production) matched its lowest-ever levels.

The firm’s water efficiency actions are set at five-year intervals and reported on each year. These actions include regular inspections of infrastructure, as well as the ongoing identification, maintenance and repair of leaks. The next five-year review will happen in 2023.

Real-time monitoring of key indicators is used to check performance against the targets.

During 2022, Karratha Gas Plant and Pluto LNG in Western Australia both met water efficiency targets set the previous year. Despite meeting the target, Pluto LNG experienced higher-than-expected water usage, eventually attributed to an underground leak from the site firewater system which was subsequently isolated and repaired. Further improvements in water use and efficiency are thus expected at the facility in 2023.

King Bay Supply Facility slightly exceeded its water efficiency target, but some key initiatives were implemented during the period, including the repair of leaks in the main potable water tank liners and the commissioning of a new wharf bunkering line that will reduce strain on existing high density polyethylene piping. The firm says this will result in a lower frequency of failures going forward.

In its Trinidad and Tobago oil storage facility in Guayaguayare Bay, Woodside installed a pilot ozone skid to reduce the chemical oxygen demand (COD) of the 86,000 barrels of water in its oil storage tanks, allowing the firm to successfully meet criteria to be able to discharge the water.

 

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Southwestern Energy Company is looking to rein in emissions from its dual-basin U.S. unconventional gas portfolio after its business expanded greatly in recent years.

Scope 1 GHG emissions are still some distance over pre-acquisition levels, at 1.55 million tonnes of CO2e in 2021. This compares to 516,000 tonnes of CO2e in 2019, Evaluate Energy data shows.

In 2021, it recorded a nine per cent reduction in GHG emissions intensity, with 2022 metrics as yet unavailable.

Methane intensity also spiked in 2020, primarily due to the acquisition of assets with higher methane leak/loss rates than Southwestern’s legacy assets, though this has now been brought down to earlier levels.

The company says it minimized the impact by integrating new assets into its own, rigorous methane emissions-reduction programs.

It also attributes some of this success on the low emissions intensity profile of the two core basins in which it operates, Appalachia and Haynesville.

Acquisitions trail

Southwestern, which holds predominantly gas-based assets with some additional liquids production, has been firmly on the acquisition trail for the past few years.

• In September 2021, it acquired Indigo Natural Resources, expanding its operational footprint into Louisiana’s Haynesville shale basin.
• A few months later, in December 2021, it extended this with the purchase of GEP Haynesville, LLC, making it a key supplier to LNG exporters on the Gulf coast.
• Prior to that, in late 2020, SWN landed Montage Resources Corporation, which expanded its operations into Ohio, in the Appalachia Basin, where it also holds assets and producing wells in Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

This has seen output rise sharply, reaching 1.7 trillion cubic feet equivalent in 2022— including 4.2 bcf/d of natural gas and 97,000 bbls/d of liquids — up from a total production of 880 billion cubic feet equivalent in 2020.

Total proved reserves across both basins jumped significantly as well, reaching 21.6 trillion cubic feet equivalent in 2022, up marginally from 2021, but close to doubling 2020 figures of 12.0 trillion cubic feet equivalent.

ESG commitments

After the big spending spree, and then integrating its Haynesville acquisitions, president and chief executive officer Bill Way has been keen to bolster financial resiliency of late, paying down US$1 billion in debt during the past year.

There are also plans to moderate activity through 2023, he says, which will result in cost reductions, and slightly lower expected production, which may yield a dampening knock-on effect on emissions.

The company once again reaffirmed its commitment to lower-carbon, reliable energy in its latest set of quarterly results, published at the end of April.

Corporate responsibility and ESG is an area it has been reporting on for the past nine years, with the group making strong headway among its peers.

In 2022, the company announced a longer-term GHG emissions reduction goal consistent with a path to net zero by 2050.

Responsibly sourced gas

Southwestern has also been an early mover in its commitment to certify all wells as responsibly sourced gas (RSG) — a target achieved by the end of 2022 — and to continuously monitor for potential emissions on all well sites.

RSG is a distinct natural gas classification that is verified for low-emission attributes and environmentally responsible production, a badge of transparency that is gaining market interest.

In 2022, it signed a multi-year RSG sales agreement with the North American subsidiary of Uniper, one of Germany’s largest publicly listed energy groups.

Southwestern supplies Uniper with RSG for its U.S. midstream gas portfolio that includes domestic distribution to downstream customers, as well as natural gas to U.S. liquefaction and export facilities.

The Texas-based gas producer has also been a frontrunner in other areas, being among the first companies in the industry to achieve and sustain fresh water neutral operations.

In 2021, it achieved its sixth year of fresh water neutral operations, delivering nearly 16 billion gallons of fresh water to local communities — more than it consumed over those six years.

 

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The recent move by ConocoPhillips to buy out its partner TotalEnergies EP Canada Ltd.’s 50 per cent stake in the Surmont oilsands project — a deal worth more than US$3 billion — will have minimum effect on the company’s progress on climate and emissions.

ConocoPhillips has outlined ambitious plans to slash GHG emissions intensity from production, and is making progress, Evaluate Energy data shows.

Overall GHG emissions intensity on operated assets declined steadily between 2016 and 2021, while methane intensity has also fallen. At Surmont, GHG emissions intensity has fallen about 20 per cent since 2016, the company’s baseline emissions year.

ConocoPhillips has embedded emissions intensity targets and reductions into its M&A strategy, said chief executive officer Ryan Lance, in announcing the transaction. “We will remain on track to achieve our previously announced accelerated GHG intensity reduction target of 50–60 per cent by 2030, using the 2016 baseline.”

These are more aggressive targets than the company outlined in its ‘Plan for the Net-Zero Energy Transition 2022-2023 Progress Report,’ published earlier this year.

In this document, the stated objective is to reduce GHG emissions intensity by 40–50 per cent by 2030, across both net and gross operated production — a target introduced in 2021.

This is up from a previous 35–45 per cent — hinting perhaps at the company’s increased confidence in its ability to hit emissions intensity targets.

Evaluate Energy compiles all ESG related targets for every major oil and gas producer around the world. Find out more about all of Evaluate Energy’s ESG data at this link.

ConocoPhillips noted that it has plans for future emissions reduction at Surmont by applying a broad mix of both current and new technologies, which could include carbon capture and storage (CCS).

In November 2021, its Canadian business joined the Pathways Alliance, which has a goal to achieve net zero GHG emissions from oilsands operations by 2050.

Across the border, the group outlined various tactics to reduce operational GHG emissions from its U.S. Lower 48 business unit, where each asset has a roadmap to support the journey to net zero by 2050.

That includes adjusting operational and offtake practices to achieve a target of zero routine flaring by 2025, ahead of a 2030 World Bank target.

Key measures comprise tackling key GHG emission sources, including pneumatic controllers, the primary source of reported methane emissions, as well as combustion and flaring.

In 2021, the company also established a Low-Carbon Technologies unit to look at further emissions reduction opportunities focusing on electrification studies, equipment design, enhanced monitoring and detection of methane emissions, reductions in flaring and methane venting volumes, and CCS.

As well as identifying new low emission design concepts for future projects, the company says it intends to step up activity in the retrofit of existing assets across its U.S. Lower 48 business during 2023.

It underscores the mesh of challenges of meeting energy transition demands and reducing emissions, all the while delivering competitive returns for investors.

The Surmont buyout illustrates strong appetite for long-life, low-sustaining oil assets, with the deal expected to add approximately $600 million of annual free cash flow in 2024 (based on US$60 WTI).

At the same time, the U.S. company is expanding its business in other areas, such as LNG, and studying potential opportunities for CCS hubs along the U.S. Gulf Coast, as well as investing in additional low-carbon niches to further diversify its portfolio on the road to net zero.

That includes the nascent hydrogen sector, investing in a venture with Canada’s Ekona Power Inc. to develop hydrogen production technology through methane pyrolysis.

It is also working with Japan’s JERA to evaluate the development of blue and green ammonia as a low-carbon power generation fuel, again along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

 

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Chevron Corporation reduced its Scope 1 operated greenhouse gas emissions to an all-time low of 52 million tonnes of CO2e in 2022, following a small increase in 2021 due to increased production as economies recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Evaluate Energy data.

Aside from 2021, Scope 1 emissions have fallen every year since 2018.

In 2021, the firm announced its plan to achieve net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2050. As part of that plan, it established a marginal abatement cost curve process (MACC), which allows it to visualize the relative cost and abatement value of different projects and then prioritize the lowest cost opportunities with the greatest abatement potential.

Using the MACC process Chevron identified over 120 reduction projects for development. It plans to spend more than US$350 million on these projects in 2023 and approximately $2 billion total on similar projects through 2028.

In 2022, the firm made progress on 90 of these projects and completed 13. One of the key successes during that year involved updating a crude unit’s heat exchangers to improve waste heat utilization and reduce furnace firing, cutting CO2 emissions from the unit by approximately 20,000 tonnes annually.

Another significant reduction according to Evaluate Energy data came in upstream flaring, which was responsible for around 13 per cent of scope one emissions in 2018. Find out more about Evaluate Energy’s ESG data here.

Flaring volumes fell from 100,000 mmcf in 2021 to 60,000 mmcf in 2022, resulting in a three million tonne CO2e reduction in emissions. Historically many energy producers flare natural gas produced as a byproduct of oil production when there is no market infrastructure or demand for the associated gas. All of Chevron’s upstream onshore facilities now operate with the aim of preventing routine flaring, and the firm now considers gas-takeaway availability in its planning process, only developing wells in the Permian where there is clear offtake potential for the associated gas.

Chevron has also begun the process of switching to electric or low carbon fuel sources to power drilling, transportation, and logistics activities across its U.S. upstream operations.

Capital allocation in low carbon

Chevron is leading the way amongst the U.S. majors in its capital allocation to reducing its carbon intensity. In addition to the $2 billion in carbon reduction projects mentioned above, the firm has announced it will invest $8 billion in new low carbon technologies by 2028.

There are three key strands to the firm’s low carbon technology investments — renewable fuels, hydrogen, and CCS — and it has formed a new division called Chevron New Energies to pursue these opportunities.

Renewable fuels

By 2030 the company wants to grow renewable fuels production capacity to 100,000 bbls/d, principally in renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, where it sees growing demand.

Chevron has several joint ventures underway, including a co-investment with California Bioenergy LLC in a project to produce dairy biomethane as an RNG transportation fuel in California, and another with Bunge North America, Inc., a subsidiary of Bunge Limited, to develop renewable feedstocks from canola crops.

Hydrogen

Chevron wants to grow hydrogen production to 150,000 tonnes annually. It is working with Japanese utility JERA to develop liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) technology — a potential alternative to ammonia for transporting the fuel over longer distances.

In 2022 Chevron also invested in Canadian clean hydrogen company Aurora Hydrogen’s $10 million funding round. Aurora uses a relatively new technology called methane pyrolysis to produce hydrogen from natural gas.

CCS

Chevron has a CCUS deployment target of 25 million tonnes annually of CO2 in equity CCS storage by 2030.

Despite problems, Chevron’s flagship Gorgon project in Australia has given it a large knowledge base in CCS. Chevron was licensed to build the $54 billion gas export plant on the condition it would inject around four million tonnes (80 per cent) of the CO2 it emitted. But it injected just 1.6 million tonnes in the 2021–22 financial year due to issues with its water management system.

Chevron has insisted that the CO2 injection part of the project is working well and is looking to leverage its knowledge from Gorgon in other projects.

It recently announced plans to expand its Bayou Bend project on the U.S. Gulf coast to enable it to store one billion tonnes of CO2. The project is planned to be deployed before 2030, pending FID. It would store four–five million tonnes of CO2 annually in its first phase before increasing this to eight–10 million tonnes.

Chevron is also one of 10 industry partners that have agreed to support large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to help decarbonize industrial facilities in Houston, Texas.

 

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Private companies’ predominance in North American upstream M&A continued in Q4 2022 based on Evaluate Energy’s latest deal analysis.

Evaluate Energy’s new infographic shows that 81% of all global deal value – in an especially lacklustre quarter for dealmaking – was spent on North American assets, and that private companies were involved in the five highest-value U.S. and Canadian deals.

• The U.S. deals included the highest value Q4 deal worldwide that will see Continental Resources taken into private ownership, as well as acquisitions by Marathon Oil and Diamondback Energy.
• In Canada, the oilsands sector saw its first +$1 billion quarter in the post-pandemic era, fuelled by the $950 million acquisition of Greenfire Resources by M3-Brigade Acquisition III Corp.

“Acquisitions of private operators by public companies remain a key trend, in part due to a lack of appetite for oil and gas IPOs, which blocks a key monetization route for private operators,” said Eoin Coyne, senior M&A analyst. “Equally, private operators have been looking to monetize investments while oil and gas prices are relatively high.”

Evaluate Energy’s latest M&A infographic can be downloaded at this link.

Included within the infographic:

• More details on these private company deals
• Why global deal activity fell to record lows based on several metrics in Q4 and 2022 overall
• Evaluate Energy’s 2023 outlook for upstream M&A
• Regional breakdowns of all Q4 activity

 

 

The world’s largest E&P companies have been extremely active in selling assets this year according to analysis available in Evaluate Energy’s latest M&A infographic.

Evaluate Energy’s data shows that over $22 billion has been raised by oil and gas majors – public companies with an enterprise value of over $10 billion – since the start of 2022 by selling assets or stakes in their upstream portfolios.

“There have been 46 individual deals with majors selling assets since the start of the year across 17 countries, with a large number of assets sold to private equity buyers,” explains Eoin Coyne, Evaluate Energy’s Senior M&A Analyst.

While sales have been frequent, acquisitions have been thin on the ground.

“The current price environment is seemingly steering these producers towards sales and potentially furthering development of existing core assets and away from any kind of widespread acquisition activities,” said Coyne.

“Investment in renewable energy sectors has also been growing.”

Evaluate Energy’s Q3 infographic provides detailed information on asset sales by Repsol, ExxonMobil and Shell, among others.

High oil and gas prices continue to stifle market activity when it comes to E&P deal-making.

Evaluate Energy’s latest infographic focuses on upstream M&A in Q2 2022 – and is available to download free here. It details a total of $22 billion in new deals; albeit, the second consecutive quarter with historically modest activity levels.

“Q2’s $22 billion is an uptick over last quarter but 35% down on the five-year average total per quarter, with high prices the primary driver,” said Eoin Coyne, senior analyst at Evaluate Energy. “As we saw in Q1, buyers seem unwilling to make deals at top-of-the-market prices, while sellers have little impetus to part with assets contributing to healthy profits unless a strong offer is made.”

The infographic expands on these and other external pressures that may be hindering activity, while also providing information on:

• All the major Q2 deals
• The largest U.S. merger of 2022
• The active role now taken by private companies
• Canada’s most active quarter of deal-making since Covid-19 hit
• Activity in Qatar related to the single largest LNG project in history